Post by mrode363 on Jun 8, 2016 23:05:17 GMT
Consistent. When you think about Wisconsin Badgers football, consistent is a fitting adjective.
Since the 2009 season, the Badgers have won at least eight games each year. The team has made a bowl game every year since 2002. And Wisconsin has won at least 10 games in seven of the past 11 seasons. Consistent is definitely a fair term.
The team might not be as flashy as Big Ten rival Ohio State or the up-tempo Oregon Ducks, but the team repeatedly finds ways to win games and compete for conference titles.
How do they do it? The quick response might be, “They run the ball down your throat behind a massive offensive line.”
Seems like the correct response right? Last season, a 10-3 campaign that ended in a bowl win over USC, the Badgers ranked 95th in the country at 150.3 yards per game. Not exactly the powerful rushing attack that Wisconsin fans have become accustomed to.
So they won 10 games because they had a better passing offense than usual then? While the Badgers did rank 55th in the country at 228.3 yards per game, that average doesn’t exactly scream ‘lethal passing game’. Last year, the passing game did have its moments and also seemed better than usual in Madison, but that was, in large part, due to a below-average ground game.
Okay, so they didn’t run the ball well, they didn’t pass well either… How did they earn 10 wins and earn a tie for second in the West Division with six wins in eight games? Defense.
The Badgers’ defense was outstanding in 2015, allowing just 268.5 yards per contest, which ranked second in the country. Wisconsin held opponents to 95.4 rushing yards per game and allowed the fewest points per game at 13.7. With stats like that, it's much easier to identify the key to the Badgers earning 10 wins.
With that question resolved, it’s time to look to this year’s team and make some predictions. To begin, let's just point out the obvious and say that the schedule may be the Badgers’ toughest in a decade. Opening with LSU before a four-game gauntlet against Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa will certainly test the Badgers. Want to make that stretch even harder? Well, you don’t really need to, as Camp Randall will only be the game site for the Ohio State matchup.
The opponent shouldn’t matter as long as the Badgers have enough talent on its roster to compete… So who will the Badgers lean upon this year?
If the Badgers hope to reach the eight-win plateau again, getting the running game back to its dominant form will be crucial. Corey Clement entered the 2015 as a Heisman candidate, only to be affected by injuries all season and play in just four total games. He carried the ball just 48 times, tallying 221 yards and five touchdowns, three of which came against Rutgers. If the now senior can return his sophomore production (147 attempts, 949 yards, 9 touchdowns), the Badgers should be able to reach eight wins.
His running compliment is Dare Ogunbowale, a junior that took over the starting role in Clement’s absence last season. Playing in the most meaningful football of his Wisconsin career, Ogunbowale attempted 194 rushes for 819 yards and had seven touchdowns. Where the junior best compliments Clement is in the passing game; last season, Ogunbowale caught 36 passes for 299 yards and a score. Clement should receive about 60 percent of the touches with Ogunbowale filling in on third down and to give Clement some breathers.
Leading the way for the duo is a still extremely young offensive line. As I see it, the leader of the O-line will be the only junior or senior starter in Dan Voltz. The senior will look to help the Badgers’ running game regain its past form, but will need the help of four sophomores. Beau Benzschawel, Jon Diezten, Michael Deiter and Jacob Maxwell will fill out the rest of the offensive line and look to improve upon a shaky season. If the offensive line can grow together and build chemistry, the running game should open up some opportunities for the passing game.
Probably the biggest question for the Badgers during the offseason is who will become the next quarterback? The Joel Stave era is over, and whether you liked him as a QB or not, his absence leaves a big hole on the offensive side of the ball.
Bart Houston, a redshirt senior played well in limited action in 2015… Some were encouraging coach Paul Chryst to make a switch as a result, but the coach stood firm with Stave. Does that make Houston the next QB though? A pair of freshman, Alex Hornibrook and Karé Lyles, have both been mentioned in competition with Houston for the starting nod. Hornibrook looks like he has the edge over Lyles and has made the competition a two-man race.
My gut feeling tells me that the Badgers will ride with Houston to start the season. However, that doesn’t mean that Hornibrook or even Lyles won’t play during the upcoming season. With the first game being against LSU, a team that could make a push for the College Football Playoff, the smart move would be to start the seasoned Houston instead of throwing Hornibrook into the fire without ever taking a snap. I don’t see the Badgers using a two-QB set to attack defenses but Chryst does have a knack for making bold moves that usually pay off. The quarterback competition will be highly watched throughout the summer months and will probably take many twists and turns before it’s time to kick off in Lambeau.
As for wide receivers and tight ends, the top two targets will almost certainly be Rob Wheelwright (WR) and Troy Fumagalli (TE). Wheelwright came out of nowhere last season to compliment standout wideout Alex Erickson, gathering 32 catches for 416 yards and four touchdowns. The highlight play that all Wisconsinites remember is the one-handed acrobatic catch in the National Funding Holiday Bowl against USC… What most people forget is that he missed the four games before that to a leg injury, meaning those stats he put up could have been much better. Fumagalli, on the other hand, caught 28 passes for 313 yards and a touchdown. He should see an increased workload with Austin Traylor out of the picture.
As for other receiving options, the Badgers are a bit weak. Jazz Peavy (20 catches, 268 yards, 0 touchdowns), Reggie Love (4 catches, 55 yards, 0 touchdowns) and George Rushing (1 catch, 10 yards, 0 touchdowns) are the only other wide receiver options that posted any numbers last season. Look for a couple of youngsters to earn some targets, such as Kenrick Sanders, Ricky Finco, Henry Houden, Peter Roy and Andrew James. Eric Steffes, a 6 foot, 5 inch tight end, should also make an impact at some point in the season.
While the offense may not sport around clearly identifiable playmakers, the defense more than makes up for it. While the Badgers did lose Joe Schobert, Tanner McEvoy, Michael Caputo and Darius Hillary, they return the likes of Vince Biegel, Sojourn Shelton, T.J Edwards and Chris Orr.
Biegel teamed up with Schobert to arguably create the best outside linebacker rushing duos in the nation last year. With Schobert out, Biegel should be joined by a familiar name in T.J. Watt (brother of J.J. Watt) and still be one of the best duos in the conference, if not the country. With Shelton, the Badgers have a seasoned cornerback that should have lead an otherwise inexperienced secondary.
As for the inside linebacker positions, the Badgers return Edwards and Orr who are both entering just their sophomore years. The duo combined for 130 total tackles last year and should see that number jump even higher with a year of experience under their belts. My expectation for this duo is extremely high, and the fact that they are only in their second year should make any Badgers’ fan grin while leaving other Big Ten fans a bit paranoid. Edwards and Orr should be a ball-hawking LB duo that ranks among the nation’s best, maybe even as early as this season.
On the defensive line, the Badgers will return each of their ends and their nose tackle. The trio of Arthur Goldberg, Chikwe Obasih and Conor Sheehy was good in 2015, but has room for improvement in 2016. If the group is able to take the next step forward, this Badgers’ defense could be even better… Scary thought, I know.
Rounding out the defense is the secondary led by Shelton. Cornerbacks Derrick Tindal and Natrell Jamerson will also be forced into bigger roles this season and will look to shut down some of the Big Ten’s best passing attacks. Redshirt freshman Titus Booker should also see a considerable amount of playing time but also will not be forced into too much playing time. D’Cota Dixon and Leo Musso saw some playing time in McEvoy and Caputo’s absence last year, and will most likely have the early chance to win the starting spots. Former four-star recruit Arrington Farrar should be the top backup at both the free safety and strong safety spots and be the future at the position as he is only a sophomore.
As for the Badgers’ special teams, the placekicker position is locked down while the punting position remains a priority. Drew Meyer’s graduation left the already shaky punting unit without a clear-cut starter for this season. The starter will come from the trio of P.J. Rosowski, Connor Allen and Anthony Lotti. My guess is all three will battle it out this summer and all get game action during the season as no player is past his sophomore year of eligibility. Lotti is a fairly highly-rated prospect which gives him the leg up. Rafael Gaglianone returns for his junior senior and will try to improve upon his 18-27 year while kicking field goals. Andrew Endicott should again do all the kickoffs after scores.
So now that the team’s positions have been addressed, it is time for me to bring out my magic crystal ball and look into the future. Here is my early summer prediction for the Wisconsin Badgers in the upcoming football season (schedule posted below):
Opponent-Date/Time-Place
LSU-September 3/2:30 p.m.-Lambeau Field
Akron-September 10/TBA-Camp Randall Stadium
Georgia State-September 17/TBA- Camp Randall Stadium
Michigan State-September 24/TBA-Spartan Stadium
Michigan-October 1/TBA-Michigan Stadium
Ohio State-October 15/7 p.m.-Camp Randall Stadium
Iowa-October 22/TBA-Kinnick Stadium
Nebraska-October 29/6 p.m-Camp Randall Stadium
Northwestern-November 5/TBA-Ryan Field
Illinois-November 12/2:30 p.m.-Camp Randall Stadium
Purdue-November 19/TBA-Ross-Ade Stadium
Minnesota-November 26/TBA-Camp Randall Stadium
Starting against SEC powerhouse LSU, the Badgers are once again going to be an underdog for its season opener. Going into the game with a quarterback that is inexperienced and a secondary that lacks noticeable playmakers doesn’t help either. The Badgers might be overmatched but that’s been the case in the past two bowl games (both wins) and the past two season openers (losses to LSU and Alabama). I think the Badgers finally get their opening season upset over an SEC opponent, using the home-field advantage of Lambeau Field to steal a low-scoring game against LSU.
Before the four-game gauntlet are two non conference opponents in Akron and Georgia State. Barring a major upset, the Badgers (in my prediction) should enter the conference slate with a perfect 3-0 mark.
Kicking off the tough four-game stretch is a pair of trips to Michigan, first to face to Spartans and then to battle the Wolverines. Unless a quarterback really steps up, I cannot see the Badgers pulling off the upset in East Lansing. Michigan State is coming off an incredible season, and although facing a QB concern of their own, I think the Spartans hand the Badgers a conference-opening loss and its first loss of the year. A week later in Ann Arbor, I think that Badgers will be able to hang tough with the Wolverines but fall on a late score. The arrival of Jim Harbaugh has put Michigan back on the college football map after a couple of down seasons and he will continue to wreak havoc on the Big Ten until his retire or return to the NFL. While a 0-2 mark to start conference play isn’t pretty, the Badgers would need to pull an upset in both to earn wins.
Next up is Ohio State, a team that beat Wisconsin 59-0 in its last matchup in the Big Ten Championship. Being in Camp Randall, I expect this game to be much closer. The Buckeyes own a four-game winning streak over the Badgers, with Wisconsin’s last win coming in 2010. That game was played in Camp Randall and saw the Badgers upset the then top-ranked Buckeyes 31-18. Deja vu in 2016? While Ohio State might not be the top-ranked team at the time of this game, I am going to call an upset in this one, giving the Badgers a much-needed first conference win to improve to 4-2 overall.
Coming off the high of winning over Ohio State, the Iowa matchup would be a trap game to begin with. Throw in that the game will be in Kinnick Stadium and this game gets even tougher for Bucky. As with any Badger win I predict, the score should be relatively low, with the Badgers leaning on its defense to steal wins late. I’ll take Wisconsin in this one to even up its conference mark.
After its four game gauntlet is a mini, two-game fairly tough stretch against Nebraska and then Northwestern. These two games, along with the game with the Hawkeyes, will be a big factor in who wins the West Division this season. Given the Badgers past two wins against better opponents, I will put them above .500 in conference play and make them bowl-eligible with a win at home over Nebraska. However, I expect that record to again be even after the road test against Northwestern. Through nine games, that gives Wisconsin a 6-3 mark, making 10 wins outside of a conference championship or bowl game win impossible.
Next up is a home game against Illinois. I expect the Badgers to right the ship in this one and easily take the win. If the Badgers were to falter against the Illini, I would expect a longer look at one of the freshman QB’s mentioned earlier.
As for the road game against Purdue, barring a complete turnaround from last year’s Boilermakers’ team, the Badgers should easily handle this one too. Heading into the last game of the season, Wisconsin would sport an 8-3 record.
In that final home game against Minnesota, a West Division title could be on the line or make an impact on another contending team. Hoping to build momentum entering bowl season, I would expect the Badgers to take care of the Gophers in another tight battle. Sending the seniors off with the ‘Axe’ would also be a fitting way to end another good season. Rounding out conference play, the Badgers would sit at 9-3 overall with a 6-3 mark in the conference.
That would probably not be good enough for a spot in the Conference Championship and would likely send the Badgers to the Holiday Bowl, Outback Bowl or Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl. While the team could fail to reach 10 wins, it would again prove to the nation that it can perform well in a good conference, matchup well with any team despite a lack of top-tier talent and perform consistently for another season.
Final Record: 9-3 overall, 6-3 Big Ten West Division